Legislature(2023 - 2024)BUTROVICH 205

03/31/2023 03:30 PM Senate RESOURCES

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03:31:58 PM Start
03:32:38 PM Presentation(s): Cook Inlet Update
04:36:34 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
Presentation: Cook Inlet Update by Colleen
Glover, Tax Division Director, Department of
Revenue; and Dan Stickel, Chief Economist,
Department of Revenue
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
**Streamed live on AKL.tv**
                    ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE                                                                                  
               SENATE RESOURCES STANDING COMMITTEE                                                                            
                         March 31, 2023                                                                                         
                            3:31 p.m.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Click Bishop, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Cathy Giessel, Co-Chair                                                                                                 
Senator James Kaufman                                                                                                           
Senator Forrest Dunbar                                                                                                          
Senator Matt Claman                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bill Wielechowski, Vice Chair                                                                                           
Senator Scott Kawasaki                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
COMMITTEE CALENDAR                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
PRESENTATION(S): COOK INLET UPDATE                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
      - HEARD                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                              
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
No previous action to record                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
WITNESS REGISTER                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
DAN STICKEL, Chief Economist                                                                                                    
Tax Division                                                                                                                    
Department of Revenue                                                                                                           
Juneau, Alaska                                                                                                                  
POSITION STATEMENT: Delivered the Cook Inlet update.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
ACTION NARRATIVE                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
3:31:58 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR   CATHY  GIESSEL   called   the  Senate   Resources   Standing                                                       
Committee  meeting  to  order  at 3:31  p.m.  Present  at  the call  to                                                         
order  were  Senators   Dunbar,  Claman,   Kaufman,  Co-Chair   Bishop,                                                         
and Co-Chair Giessel.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
^PRESENTATION(S): COOK INLET UPDATE                                                                                             
               PRESENTATION(S): COOK INLET UPDATE                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:32:38 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  announced  the  committee  would hear  an update  on                                                         
oil  and  gas  issues  in  Cook  Inlet.   She  explained  this  was  in                                                         
response  to  the  questions  about  the  tax structure   that came  up                                                         
during   the  February   update   from   the  Department   of   Natural                                                         
Resources (DNR) about the availability of gas in Cook Inlet.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
She  welcomed  Dan  Stickel   to  the  witness  table  and  noted  that                                                         
Colleen Glover was available online to answer questions.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:33:34 PM                                                                                                                    
DAN   STICKEL,   Chief   Economist,   Tax   Division,   Department   of                                                         
Revenue,  Juneau,   Alaska,  introduced  himself  and  began  the  Cook                                                         
Inlet  Update presentation   on slide  2 that  consisted  of a  list of                                                         
acronyms  that  are  commonly  used  in oil  and  gas. He  advanced  to                                                         
slide 3 and reviewed the following agenda:                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
        Oil and Gas Revenue Sources                                                                                             
        o Petroleum Revenue by Land Type                                                                                        
        o Production tax with January 1, 2022 changes                                                                           
        o FY 2021  FY 2025 Cook Inlet oil and gas revenues                                                                      
        Cook Inlet Oil and Gas Prices and Production                                                                            
        Non-North Slope Lease Expenditures                                                                                      
        Non-North Slope Tax Credits                                                                                             
        Cook Inlet Production Tax "Order of Operations"                                                                         
        Cook Inlet Distribution of Profits                                                                                      
        Cook Inlet Incentives                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
3:35:42 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL advanced to slide 4 and issued a disclaimer:                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
      Disclaimer                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
          Alaska's severance tax is one of the most complex                                                                     
           in the world and portions are subject to                                                                             
           interpretation and dispute                                                                                           
          These numbers are rough approximations based on                                                                       
           public data, as presented in the Spring 2023                                                                         
           Revenue Sources Book and other revenue forecasts                                                                     
          This presentation is solely for illustrative                                                                          
           general purposes                                                                                                     
          Not an official statement as to any particular                                                                        
           tax liability, interpretation, or treatment                                                                          
          Not tax advice or guidance                                                                                            
          Some numbers may differ due to rounding                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
3:36:25 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  advanced  to  slide  5 and  described  the  four  primary                                                         
sources of oil and gas revenue in Cook Inlet:                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
          Royalty  based on gross value of production                                                                           
           o Plus bonuses, rents, and interest                                                                                  
           o Paid to Owner of the land: State, Federal, or                                                                      
              Private                                                                                                           
           o Usually 12.5% in Cook Inlet, but rates vary                                                                        
          Corporate Income Tax  based on net income                                                                             
           o Paid to State (9.4% top rate)                                                                                      
           o Paid to Federal (21% top rate)                                                                                     
           o Only C-Corporations* pay this tax                                                                                  
          Property Tax  based on value of oil & gas                                                                             
           property                                                                                                             
           o Paid to State (2% of assessed value or "20                                                                         
              mills")                                                                                                           
           o Paid to Municipalities  credit offsets state                                                                       
              tax paid (so 2% combined total)                                                                                   
          Production Tax  based on "production tax value"                                                                       
           o Paid to State  calculation to follow                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
3:38:08 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP  wondered  whether  the 10  percent  royalty  rate was                                                         
negotiated pre-statehood.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  explained   that  10  percent  was  a  weighted   average                                                         
royalty  rate   in  Cook  Inlet  for  production   on  state  land.  He                                                         
offered  to  follow up  with  the details;  some  leases  pay  the full                                                         
12.5 percent while other leases pay a reduced royalty rate.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:38:58 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  asked  how  many companies   working  in Cook  Inlet                                                         
might be subject to the corporate income tax.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that  there  was  one major  producer,   several                                                         
smaller  producers,  and  minor working  interest  owners.  He  said he                                                         
would follow up with details and the specific number.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:39:32 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  CLAMAN  asked   whether  the  state  property  tax  was  based                                                         
solely on oil and gas properties.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that's   correct;  the  state  property  tax  on                                                         
oil and gas property is 20 mills.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  CLAMAN  asked  how a  local  or municipal  tax  fits  with the                                                         
2 percent state tax.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  explained   that  the  local  tax  is allowed   as  a tax                                                         
credit  against   the  state  tax,  so  a  company  would  pay  the  20                                                         
mills or 2 percent regardless of what the local tax may be.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  CLAMAN   posed  the  hypothetical   example  of  a  5  percent                                                         
local  tax,  and asked  whether  the  entire  amount  would  go  to the                                                         
local government.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that  it  was  beyond  his  area  of  expertise,                                                         
but  he  believes  that   5 percent   would  be  above  the  limit  for                                                         
local governments to tax.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  CLAMAN  asked  who  gets  the  revenue  that  is  higher  than                                                         
two percent but below the limit.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  offered  his  understanding  that  no  local governments                                                          
were  taxing  above  20  mils  or  2  percent,  but  if  that  were  to                                                         
happen,  it  would  offset   the  state  tax  entirely  and  the  state                                                         
would  not  get  any   property  tax.  He  noted   that  at  least  one                                                         
municipality   was taxing  the  full 20  mills,  and the  state  wasn't                                                         
receiving any property tax revenue from that municipality.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:41:40 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  DUNBAR  asked  whether  oil  and  gas  properties  subject  to                                                         
this  tax were  limited  to those  directly  related  to production  or                                                         
if  it   would  include,   for  example,   the   Hilcorp  building   in                                                         
Anchorage.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that  the  property   tax  applies  to  property                                                         
that  is directly  associated  with  the  exploration,  production,  or                                                         
transportation of oil and gas.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  DUNBAR  observed  that  it would  not  apply  to overhead  and                                                         
administrative buildings.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL agreed.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
3:42:25 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  turned  to slide  6, "State  Petroleum   Revenue  by Land                                                         
Type."  The chart  illustrates  that  the  state's share  of  petroleum                                                         
revenue   varies  depending   on   the  land  type.   Production   tax,                                                         
property   tax,  and  corporate   income   tax  apply  throughout   the                                                         
state  and  within  the  three-mile   limit  offshore,   regardless  of                                                         
who  owns  the land.  It's  the  royalty  rate  that  is significantly                                                          
different   depending   on  who  owns  the   land.  He  described   the                                                         
royalty rates in Cook Inlet.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Federal   offshore   areas:  The   federal  royalty   applies   and  27                                                       
percent is shared back to the state.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
State lands: The state receives the entire royalty.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Private   land:  The   royalty  is   privately   negotiated   with  the                                                       
landowner.   The  state  does  not  receive   a  direct  share  of  the                                                         
royalty  revenue,  but  the  state  does levy  a  5 percent  gross  tax                                                         
on the  value  of the  private landowner's   royalty  interest  as part                                                         
of the production tax.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
3:44:05 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL   turned  to   slide  7,  "Cook   Inlet  Production   Tax:                                                         
Before  and  Starting  January   1, 2022."  He  stated  that  prior  to                                                         
January  1, 2022,  both  oil  and gas  were subject  to  a net  profits                                                         
tax with  a 35  percent  tax on  production  tax value.  There  were no                                                         
per  barrel  taxable   credits  and  no  gross  minimum  tax  floor.  A                                                         
company  that  produced  both  oil and  gas would  allocate  its  lease                                                         
expenditures   such  that  it would  have  separate  tax  calculations                                                          
for oil and gas.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
On and  after  January 1,  2022,  gas became  subject  to a 13  percent                                                         
tax  on  the gross  value  at  the  point  of  production  (GVPP),  and                                                         
all  lease expenditures   could be  deducted  against  the net  tax for                                                         
oil.  This  change  was put  in place  in  2014  when Senate  Bill  138                                                         
was  enacted  in  anticipation   of  a major  gas  sale  that  has  not                                                         
happened. Nevertheless, the tax switched to a gross tax in 2022.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
In Cook  Inlet  there is  a separate  tax  calculation  for each  field                                                         
and  separate  calculations  for  oil  and gas  within  each field,  so                                                         
Cook  Inlet  is  ring-fenced.  A  tax  ceiling  applies  for  both  oil                                                         
and  gas. The  tax  ceiling  for  oil is  $1/barrel.  The  ceiling  for                                                         
gas  varies  by  field.  Fields  in production   before  the  petroleum                                                         
profits  tax  (PPT) was  enacted  in  April, 2006  have  a tax  ceiling                                                         
based  on the  gas tax  rate  for that  field  in the  12 months  prior                                                         
to  enactment   of the  PPT.   Those  rates  vary  from  zero  to  24.7                                                         
cents  per   thousand  cubic   feet  (mcf).   Fields  that   came  into                                                         
production  post  4/1/2006  are  taxed  at the  average  rate in  2006,                                                         
which was 17.7 cents/mcf.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Over  time  and  on average,   production  has  shifted  to  the  lower                                                         
production   fields.   Most   recently,   the  weighted   average   tax                                                         
ceiling is a little under 14 cents/mcf.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Notably,  most  of the tax  credits  put in  place in  2006,  2007, and                                                         
2010  were  repealed   by  2018.  At  this  point  there  are  few  tax                                                         
credits,   although  a  few  companies  are  eligible   for  the  small                                                         
producer credit that is phasing out.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
3:47:39 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  asked  if he  said  that production   had shifted  to                                                         
the fields that are subject to the lower tax rate.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that's   correct.  He  added  that  the  average                                                         
tax ceiling  in  2006 was  17.7 cents/mcf,   and the  average  now is a                                                         
little less than 14 cents/mcf.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  questioned  whether  there  was cause  and effect  or                                                         
the result of the natural degradation of the higher cost fields.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL said he didn't have the answer.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  CLAMAN   asked  when  the  law  passed  that  enacted  the  13                                                         
percent   tax  on  the  gross   value  at   the  point  of   production                                                         
(GVPP).                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that  it was  Senate  Bill  138 that  passed  in                                                         
2014.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  CLAMAN  observed   that  it passed   in 2014  to  take  effect                                                         
eight years later.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  agreed  and restated   that part  of  the  impetus  was a                                                         
potential major gas sale.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:49:41 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  turned to  the  chart on  slide  8, "Cook  Inlet  Oil and                                                         
Gas   Revenue:   Five-Year   Comparison."    He  said   DOR  does   not                                                         
separately   track  oil  prices  in  Cook  Inlet.  Alaska  North  Slope                                                         
prices  are  used  as  a proxy.  DNR  produces  the  forecast  for  oil                                                         
production  as  part  of  its regular   production  forecast.  For  gas                                                         
prices,  DOR  publishes  a  prevailing  value  of  gas prices  in  Cook                                                         
Inlet.  This  is  based  on publicly   reported  average  information.                                                          
DOR  does  not have  an  exquisite  gas  price  forecast  for  modeling                                                         
purposes.  The  assumption   is that  gas  prices  will  increase  over                                                         
time with inflation.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
He  relayed   that   the  numbers   for  Cook   Inlet  gas   production                                                         
reflect  total   gas offtakes.   He  noted  that  offtake  is  the  gas                                                         
used  in  operations,   and  it  represents  a  significant   share  of                                                         
production.  It  is not  subject  to  either royalty  or  tax,  but for                                                         
consistency    it   is   reported   by   the   Alaska   Oil   and   Gas                                                         
Conservation    Commission   (AOGCC).   There   is  also   a   separate                                                         
forecasted   gas   production   that   comes  from   DNR.  The   agency                                                         
evaluates   the  various   producing  properties   and  potential   new                                                         
developments and those are the forecast numbers on the chart.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL reviewed  the  state  revenue  coming directly  from  Cook                                                         
Inlet.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Property tax is fairly steady at $15 million.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Corporate  income  tax  applies  to  select  companies  doing  business                                                       
in  Cook   Inlet.  This   year  the  state   expects  to   receive  $10                                                         
million  in  corporate   income  tax,  and  it's  expected   to  remain                                                         
about the same for the next two years.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Production   tax has  been  a  fairly  small  revenue  stream  for  the                                                       
last  several  years. Companies  have  been  able to  apply credits  to                                                         
offset  nearly  all  their  production  tax.  The  exceptions  are  the                                                         
hazardous   release  surcharge   and  the  tax  on  private   landowner                                                         
royalty  interests.   Those  credits  will  largely   be used  up  this                                                         
year and DOR expects more revenue in FY2024 and FY2025.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Royalty  is the  largest  stream  of revenue  that the  state  receives                                                       
from  Cook  Inlet   oil  and  gas  production.   The  chart  shows  $69                                                         
million   in  2023   and  $60   million   in  FY2024.   These   numbers                                                         
represent  total   royalty  revenue,  which  includes   the  restricted                                                         
portion that goes to the permanent fund and school fund.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:53:23 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  DUNBAR   asked  what  caused   the  substantial   increase  in                                                         
corporate  income  tax from  $4 million  in  FY2021 to  $13 million  in                                                         
FY2022.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  answered  that  FY2021  reflects  some  of  the  negative                                                         
impacts  of  low oil  prices  and the  Covid-19  pandemic  in  2020. It                                                         
was a challenging year and some companies experienced losses.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  DUNBAR  summarized  that  it  wasn't a  law change;  a  market                                                         
and  price change  caused  the  drop  in FY2021.  The  expectation  for                                                         
this  year  and the  next  two years  is  for that  revenue  to  be low                                                         
double digit and high single digit.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL   clarified   that   there  was  a   compounding   federal                                                         
factor.  The  CARES  Act  provided  that  any corporation   that  had a                                                         
net  operating  loss  in tax  years  2018-2020  could  carry that  loss                                                         
back  for up  to five  years  and receive  a  refund  on taxes  already                                                         
paid.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL   added  that   the  federal   tax  code  is   adopted  by                                                         
reference  as  the  starting   point  for  the corporate   income  tax,                                                         
which is why the federal changes affect the state income tax.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
3:55:38 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  advanced  to  the line  chart  on  slide 9,  "Cook  Inlet                                                         
Oil  and Gas  Prices."  He restated   that Cook  Inlet  oil prices  are                                                         
not  specifically  forecast,  but  they do  closely  track North  Slope                                                         
prices.   The  chart  shows   a  ten-year   history  of  DOR's   Spring                                                         
forecasts  for  North  Slope  oil prices,   which is  used  as a  proxy                                                         
for Cook  Inlet  prices.  The price  of Cook  Inlet  gas has  increased                                                         
steadily  each  year  and  the  forecast   for future   prices  applies                                                         
inflation, which continues the trend.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:56:19 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL   advanced   to  slide  10,   "Cook  Inlet   Oil  and  Gas                                                         
Production."   He relayed   that  Cook  Inlet  is a  mature  basin.  It                                                         
was  Alaska's  first  oil  and  gas  basin,  and  production  began  in                                                         
the  1950s.  It peaked  in  the 1970s  with  a  one-time  high  of over                                                         
23,000  bbl/day.  For many  years  gas was  exported  from Cook  Inlet,                                                         
but   that  has   ceased.   Discussions   now   center   on   potential                                                         
concerns  about  the  gas  supply  in the  basin.  More  recently  Cook                                                         
Inlet  has  seen  an  increase   in  oil  production.  This   coincided                                                         
with  higher   oil  prices,   generous  tax   credits,  and   Hilcorp's                                                         
entry  into Cook  Inlet.  The latest  DNR  production  forecast  is for                                                         
some  new projects   leading  to a  fairly  stable production   outlook                                                         
for both oil and gas for the next decade.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR   GIESSEL  commented   on  the   uptick  in  production   that                                                         
resulted  from  the  Cook  Inlet  Recovery  Act.  She also  noted  that                                                         
the state was unable to pay the cash credits it gave out.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:58:08 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  said  that's   a good  segue   to slide   11,  "Non-North                                                         
Slope  Lease  Expenditures."   The  line  graph  illustrates  the  idea                                                         
that  high  oil  prices,  low taxes,   and generous   subsidies  result                                                         
in investment.   This is  what happened  in  the 2012-2015   timeframe.                                                         
The Cook  Inlet  Recovery  Act put  generous  tax credits  in  place in                                                         
2020.  This  helped   draw  Hilcorp  into   Cook  Inlet  in  2012;  the                                                         
chart  shows  the corresponding   increase  in  capital  spend  in Cook                                                         
Inlet  to  $600-650  million/year.   House   Bill  247  repealed  those                                                         
tax  credits  in  2016  and  investment   started  to  drop.  By  2018,                                                         
most  of those  tax  credits  were repealed.   He said  it's  difficult                                                         
to  assign  cause  and  effect  of  the  tax  incentives   because  the                                                         
repeal of the credits coincided with lower oil prices.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  remarked  that  operating   costs  have  remained  fairly                                                         
stable  over  the  last   decade.  The  chart  shows  a  drop  in  both                                                         
capital  and  operating   costs  in  FY2021,  which  is  attributed  to                                                         
the  Covid-19   pandemic.   A  small  rebound   in  both   capital  and                                                         
operating   expenditures   is  expected  in  FY2024   with  a  few  new                                                         
projects,  but  the  general  expectation   is  for stable  investment                                                          
at the lower levels seen in the last few years.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
4:00:16 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN   referenced  the  previous  slide   and asked   if it                                                         
would  be  safe  to assume   that  the policy   creating  a  beneficial                                                         
environment   is linked   to,  if not  proof  of,  the  change  in  the                                                         
production trend line.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  said  the incentives   in the  Cook  Inlet  Recovery  Act                                                         
certainly  were  effective  in increasing   investment,  but it's  more                                                         
difficult   to  say  what  investment   would  have   been  absent  the                                                         
credits because oil prices also increased.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
4:01:42 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL advanced  to  slide  12, "Non-North  Slope  Tax  Credits."                                                         
He   explained   that    the  "non-North    Slope"   category    honors                                                         
confidentiality    by  aggregating   Cook  Inlet   information   and  a                                                         
small  amount  of  the  credits   or spending   for  the  Middle  Earth                                                         
area.   The  bar  chart   shows  a   ten-year   history  and   ten-year                                                         
forecast.   The  orange  bars   reflect  credits   against   liability.                                                         
These  include   capital  expenditure   credits,  net  operating   loss                                                         
credits,  well  lease  expenditure  credits  (all  of  which have  been                                                         
repealed),   and  the  small  producer  credit   that  is  phasing  out                                                         
through 2025.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The  blue  bars  reflect  credits  that  are available   for  purchase.                                                         
These  include   capital  expenditure   credits,  net  operating   loss                                                         
credits,   well  lease  expenditure   credits,   exploration   credits,                                                         
gas  storage  facility  credits,  LNG  storage  facility  credits,  and                                                         
refinery  investment  credits  under  the corporate   income tax  code.                                                         
Those  credits  have  been repealed  or  sunset,  but  some were  still                                                         
available   for   purchase.   DOR  is   forecasting   a  $312   million                                                         
appropriation   in   FY2023  for   tax  credits   for  purchase.   This                                                         
represents  a  DOR Spring  forecast  estimate  of $252  million,  which                                                         
is based  on 10  percent  of the  estimate  for production  tax  levied                                                         
before  credits  for the  entire state.  There  is also  a $60  million                                                         
supplemental   appropriation   in the  FY2023  budget.  He  noted  that                                                         
the blue  bar  for FY2023  shows  the estimated  $166  million  in non-                                                         
North Slope credits. DOR estimates a remaining $56 million in                                                                   
credits statewide in FY2024, $47 million of which is non-North                                                                  
Slope.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
4:04:31 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.   STICKEL   explained   that   slides   13  and   14  address   the                                                         
committee's   request  to  provide  information   about  the  non-North                                                         
Slope  tax  credits  and  how  effective   the purchased   tax  credits                                                         
have been. He spoke to the following:                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
      Non-North Slope Tax Credits: Key Statistics                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
          FY 2007 through FY 2022, $0.1 billion of credits                                                                      
           applied against production tax liabilities                                                                           
          FY 2007 through CY 2022, $1.6 billion of credits                                                                      
           earned and eligible for state purchase                                                                               
           o $1.4 billion purchased through end of CY 2022                                                                      
           o $88 million transferred to other companies                                                                         
              though end of CY 2022                                                                                             
           o $149 million outstanding as of end of CY 2022                                                                      
          Legislative action has eliminated most Cook Inlet                                                                     
           credits:                                                                                                             
           o Qualified Capital Expenditure Credit, Well                                                                         
              Lease Expenditure Credit, Net Operating Loss                                                                      
              Credit all repealed January 1, 2018                                                                               
           o Eligibility for In-State Refinery and LNG                                                                          
              Storage Facility Credits ended January 1, 2020                                                                    
           o Small Producer Credit remains: applicable to                                                                       
              tax liability only, phasing out completely by                                                                     
              2024                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
      Non-North Slope Tax Credits: Correlation with Company                                                                 
      Activity                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
          For the $1.4 billion of credits purchased through                                                                     
           CY 2022:                                                                                                             
           o Non-North     Slope     lease    expenditures     for                                                              
              companies receiving the credits totaled $5.7                                                                      
              billion through CY 2022                                                                                           
              square4 Credit support averaged 24% of lease                                                                      
                 expenditures                                                                                                   
           o $1.1 billion to companies with production by                                                                       
              the end of CY 2022 (includes production by                                                                        
              acquiring companies)                                                                                              
              square4 Total Non-North Slope production through CY                                                               
                 2022 of 180 million BOE                                                                                        
              square4 Credits to producers equate to $6.14/ BOE or                                                              
                 $1.02/ mcf                                                                                                     
           o $261 million to companies without regular                                                                          
              production                                                                                                        
          Credits per unit of production and as a share of                                                                      
           lease expenditures will decrease over time due to                                                                    
           additional production and spending                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
4:07:44 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  stated  that  slides  15-17 are  also  in  response  to a                                                         
committee  request.   That  was  to  provide  an  illustration  of  the                                                         
production  tax  calculation  for  Cook  Inlet,  similar  to the  order                                                         
of  operations  that  DOR often  has  presented  in  the  past for  the                                                         
North  Slope.  The calculations  are  based  on the  forecast  data for                                                         
FY2024.  Slide   15  looks  at  the  oil  tax  calculation,   slide  16                                                         
looks  at  the  gas  tax  calculation,   and  slide  17  looks  at  the                                                         
final tax after credits.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Speaking   to  the  chart  on   slide  15,  he  relayed   that  DOR  is                                                         
forecasting  about  8,000  bbl/day  of  oil production   in Cook  Inlet                                                         
with  an  average   wellhead  price   of  $63.39/bbl.  The  equivalent                                                          
value  is about  $0.5  million/day  or  about  $185  million/year.  The                                                         
average  royalty   rate  in  Cook  Inlet  is  about  10  percent.  This                                                         
leaves   $166  million   gross  value  at   the  point  of   production                                                         
(GVPP),  which  is the  basis  for the  tax  calculation.  Because  all                                                         
lease  expenditures  in  Cook Inlet  can be  deducted  against  the oil                                                         
tax calculation,   the chart  shows  that a  company  is able  to apply                                                         
lease  expenditures  and  bring their  production  tax  value  to zero.                                                         
He   noted   that   the   $250   million   in   non-deductible    lease                                                         
expenditures    are   essentially    foregone    in   this    aggregate                                                         
calculation.   There  is no  tax  credit  for  those  expenditures  and                                                         
no  provision  to carry  forward  annual  losses.  The  35 percent  net                                                         
profits  tax  rate  applies  to  the  production  tax  value,  but  the                                                         
PTV  is  zero so  the  result  is  zero.  The  tax  ceiling  on oil  is                                                         
$1.00/bbl  of  taxable  production;  for 2,615  thousand  barrels,  the                                                         
tax  ceiling   calculates   to   $2.6  million.   The  lesser   of  the                                                         
production   tax before   ceiling  and  the ceiling   tax  is used,  so                                                         
the oil production tax in Cook Inlet is essentially zero.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
4:10:13 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  CLAMAN  asked  how  long  the production   tax  in Cook  Inlet                                                         
had been essentially zero.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL   replied  that  the  tax  ceiling   was  zero  from  2006                                                         
until  the legislature   raised  it with  House  Bill 247  in  2016, so                                                         
the  tax  ceiling  went  to  $1.00/bbl  in  2017.  With  the  2022  tax                                                         
changes   allowing    all  lease   expenditures    against   oil,   the                                                         
effective tax on oil is zero.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
4:11:19 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL   stated   that  slide   16  looks   at  the   Cook  Inlet                                                         
production    tax   calculation    for   gas.   For   FY2024   DOR   is                                                         
forecasting  a  price  of $8.06  per  thousand  cubic  feet (mcf);  196                                                         
million   cubic   feet  per   day  (mmcf)   of  production;    a  daily                                                         
production   value  of $1.6  million;   and an  annual  value  of  $577                                                         
million.  Gas used  in operations   is not  subject to  tax or  royalty                                                         
so those  amounts  are  deducted  from the  calculation.  He  described                                                         
the  calculation  for  tax  purposes.  The  gross  value  at the  point                                                         
of production   (GVPP) is  $424 million;  the  13 percent  tax  rate is                                                         
applied;   the  production   tax  value  before   the  ceiling  is  $55                                                         
million;  the  weighted  average  tax  ceiling  is  $7.2  million;  and                                                         
the $7.2 million is the gas production tax.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  DUNBAR  referenced   slide  15 and  made  the  observation  it                                                         
can't  be a coincidence   that the  deductible  operating  and  capital                                                         
expenditures   exactly   match  the   gross  value  at   the  point  of                                                         
production.   He  asked,  "Would  they  actually   be  higher  but  for                                                         
something?"                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that  the aggregate   calculation  assumed  that                                                         
the  producer   would  offset   their  entire   GVPP  with   the  lease                                                         
expenditures   of  $166  million.  This   does  not  include  the  $250                                                         
million  of additional   non-deductible  lease  expenditures   that are                                                         
essentially  foregone   in the  tax calculation.   So  the total  lease                                                         
expenditures   DOR is  forecasting   is the  sum  of the  $250  million                                                         
and $165 million which is a little over $400 million.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  DUNBAR  asked  whether  the  two-thirds/one-third   split  for                                                         
operating   and  capital  was  for  the  sake  of  convenience  or  the                                                         
actual breakdown.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  replied  that is  the  actual ratio;  slide  15  prorates                                                         
the total operating and total capital to $166 million.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
4:14:14 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  stated that  slide  17 looks  at  the total  oil  and gas                                                         
taxes  in  Cook  Inlet.  For  FY2024  DOR expects   a total  tax  value                                                         
before  credits   of  $7.2  million;   $2.4  million   of  tax  credits                                                         
against  liability  for  small producers;   other adjustments   such as                                                         
the  hazardous  release  surcharge  and the  tax on  private  landowner                                                         
royalty  interests  add  $0.2  million;  so the  total  production  tax                                                         
paid to the state is forecast to be $5 million in FY2024.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  restated  that  this was  an  aggregate  calculation  for                                                         
illustrative  purposes.   The actual  taxes  in Cook  Inlet are  levied                                                         
separately   for  each  field.  A  full  ringfencing  is  in  place  in                                                         
Cook  Inlet  so  some  companies  would  have  higher  or  lower  taxes                                                         
than the aggregated estimate.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
4:15:34 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR   GIESSEL  asked   how  it  happened   that  Cook   Inlet  was                                                         
excluded   from  the  legislation   going  through   the  process  that                                                         
levies an income tax on S Corporations.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL   noted  that   she  was  referring   to  SB   114,  which                                                         
extends  the  corporate  income  tax  to non-C  corporations  or  pass-                                                         
through  entities   statewide.  He  said  it would  affect  production                                                          
on  the  North   Slope,  Cook  Inlet,   and  everywhere   else  in  the                                                         
state.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  asked whether  the  bill had an  income threshold.                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  said  that's  correct.  SB  114 proposes   a 9.4  percent                                                         
tax for companies that have income greater than $4 million.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
4:17:25 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR   DUNBAR  returned   to  the  chart  on  slide   10  and  asked                                                         
whether   DOR's   forecast   of  substantially    lower  oil   and  gas                                                         
production   in  the  coming  years  was  based   on  the  current  tax                                                         
structure.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL replied that's correct.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
4:18:02 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  advanced  to slide  18  and relayed  that  the  committee                                                         
previously   asked  DOR to  look  at  how profits   in Cook  Inlet  are                                                         
distributed.   He described  the  assumptions  that  were  used  in the                                                         
analysis.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
      Cook Inlet Distribution of Profits                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
          Based on Spring 2023 Forecast for FY 2024                                                                             
          Assumes "typical" barrel of oil, mcf of gas, or                                                                       
           BOE of production                                                                                                    
          Assumes a single taxpayer on state land, 12.5%                                                                        
           royalty                                                                                                              
           Assumes weighted average tax ceilings for gas                                                                        
           (based on taxable volumes)                                                                                           
           Assumes $2.00 per BOE property tax                                                                                   
          Assumes 4.25% effective state corporate income                                                                        
           tax, 21% federal corporate income tax                                                                                
              4.25% is based on historical analysis for                                                                         
              companies subject to state corporate income tax                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
4:19:08 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  advanced   to slide  19,  "Cook  Inlet   Distribution  of                                                         
Profits:  Oil  (per barrel)."  He  noted that  DOR assumed  a  wellhead                                                         
value  of  $63.39/bbl  and  costs  of  $30.79/barrel,  which  leaves  a                                                         
profit of $32.60/bbl/oil/Cook Inlet.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Cook Inlet Distribution of Profits: Oil (per barrel)                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
similar With state corporate income tax:                                                                                        
      similar The state receives about 30 percent of the profit.                                                                
      similar The municipal property tax is about 3 percent.                                                                    
  similar The federal corporate income tax is about 14 percent.                                                                 
      similar The producer receives a little more than $17.00/bbl or 53                                                         
        percent of the profit.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
similar Without the state corporate income tax:                                                                                 
      similar The state receives about 27 percent of the profit.                                                                
      similar The producer share increases to 55 percent.                                                                       
      similar The assumption for the federal corporate income tax rate                                                          
        was 21 percent.                                                                                                         
        similar Using a higher federal income rate would reflect a                                                              
           more individual income tax rate for a pass-through                                                                   
           entity.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
4:20:26 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  wondered  what  the  distribution  of  profits  would                                                         
look  like  if  renewable  energy  were  part  of  the  comparison.  He                                                         
opined  that  renewables  would  return  a thin  profit  to the  state.                                                         
He  asked Mr.  Stickel  for  his perspective   since there  were  calls                                                         
for transitioning to 80 percent renewables.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  advised  that  state  royalty  would  not  apply to  most                                                         
renewables,   although  geothermal   may be  an  exception.   Renewable                                                         
energy  projects   would  not  be  subject   to  a production   tax  or                                                         
state  property  taxes,  but municipal  property  tax  might apply  and                                                         
the  state  potentially  could  receive  state  corporate  income  tax.                                                         
Federal taxes would apply.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  commented   that  it  should  be an  eye  opener  for                                                         
those  who are  "chomping  at  the bit"  to  pursue the  transition  to                                                         
renewables.  He  opined  that  this  points  to the  need  to find  the                                                         
sweet spot for taxation versus production.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
4:23:04 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  advanced  to slide  20  that looks  at  the distribution                                                          
of  profits   in   Cook  Inlet   for   gas  with   and  without   state                                                         
corporate  income  tax.  He advised  that a  difference  from  slide 19                                                         
is the  lease  expenditures  share  for gas  is much  higher,  so there                                                         
is  less profit  per  unit  of gas  production  than  per  unit  of oil                                                         
production.   He  said  DOR  assumed  an  average   wellhead  value  of                                                         
$8.06/mcf  and  costs  of  $5.12,  which  leaves  $2.94/mcf  of  profit                                                         
to be shared between the different entities.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Cook Inlet Distribution of Profits: Gas (per mcf)                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
similar With state corporate income tax                                                                                         
      similar The state receives about 46 percent of the profit.                                                                
      similar The municipal property tax is about 6 percent.                                                                    
      similar The federal corporate income tax is 10 percent.                                                                   
      similar The producer receives $1.12 or 38 percent of the profit.                                                          
                                                                                                                                
similar Without state corporate income tax                                                                                      
      similar The state receives about 44 percent of the profit.                                                                
      similar The producer share increases to about 40 percent.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
4:24:31 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  stated  that  slide  21  combines  the  last  two  slides                                                         
and  looks  at  all  production  in  Cook  Inlet  on  a barrel  of  oil                                                         
equivalent   (BOE)  basis.  The equivalent   assumes  that  one  barrel                                                         
of oil is the same as 6,000 cubic feet of gas (mcf).                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Cook Inlet Distribution of Profits: Oil and Gas (per BOE)                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
similar With state corporate income tax                                                                                         
      similar The state receives about 40 percent of the profit.                                                                
  similar The producer receives about 43 percent of the profit.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
similar Without state corporate income tax                                                                                      
      similar The state receives 38 percent of the profit.                                                                      
      similar The producer share 45 percent of the profit.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  DUNBAR  commented   that  the difference   between  an  entity                                                         
paying  corporate  income  tax  and not  paying  corporate  income  tax                                                         
is a  shift of  about 2  percentage  points  from the  producer  to the                                                         
state.  His perspective   was that  the producer  was  still left  with                                                         
a  fairly  healthy   profit  margin.   He asked   if  that's  what  the                                                         
graphic was intended to illustrate.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  said  that's  correct.   He restated   that  this was  an                                                         
aggregate  calculation;   it  does  not show  that  the  economics  for                                                         
each field and each producer is slightly different.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL said that's an important distinction.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
4:26:30 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  explained  that  slides  22-24  are  in response   to the                                                         
committee's   request   to  provide   information   about   Cook  Inlet                                                         
incentives. He spoke to the following:                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
      Cook Inlet Incentives: Recent History                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
           2003       Exploration    tax    credit,   20-40%    of                                                              
           expenditures                                                                                                         
           2006      PPT  enacted,   Cook   Inlet   tax  ceilings                                                               
           enacted, limited state purchase of tax credits                                                                       
           enacted                                                                                                              
          2007  ACES enacted, NOL credit rate increased                                                                         
           2008        exploration    credit    rate   increased,                                                               
           expanded purchase of tax credits                                                                                     
           2010      Cook   Inlet  Recovery   Act.   Jack-up   rig                                                              
           credit, gas storage facility credit, well lease                                                                      
           expenditure      credit,     removed      reinvestment                                                               
           requirement for tax credit purchases                                                                                 
           2013    SB21  enacted,  NOL  credit  rate  temporarily                                                               
           increased                                                                                                            
           2016      HB   247,  Cook   Inlet   oil   tax  ceiling                                                               
           increased, multiple credits sunset, limits to                                                                        
           cash purchase of credits                                                                                             
           2017     HB 111,  eliminated   credits  available   for                                                              
           cash purchase                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
4:28:05 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP  pointed  out  that  House  Bill  247 that  passed  in                                                         
2016  and House  Bill 111  that passed  in  2017 both  changed  the tax                                                         
policy   that  was   implemented   with   Senate   Bill  21   that  was                                                         
introduced in 2013.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL   observed  that  the  legislation   passed  in  2016                                                         
and 2017 were specifically for Cook Inlet.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  agreed  that  House Bill  247  and  House  Bill 111  both                                                         
were modifications to Senate Bill 21.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
4:28:59 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  turned   to slide   23 and  reviewed   the  current  Cook                                                         
Inlet incentives.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
      Cook Inlet Incentives: Current                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
           All  lease  expenditures  can  apply  against  oil  tax                                                              
          calculation for fields with both oil and gas                                                                          
          Tax ceilings in place for oil and gas                                                                                 
           Low   effective   tax   rates   and  Government    Take                                                              
           relative to North Slope                                                                                              
           No   tax    credits   currently    available    (small                                                               
           producer credit phasing out)                                                                                         
          Corporate tax does not apply to all companies                                                                         
          Royalty relief may be available  DNR                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
4:30:06 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL   advanced   to  slide  24   and  reviewed   the  list  of                                                         
potential    options    for   future   Cook    Inlet   energy    supply                                                         
incentives.   He clarified   that  this  was  not  an  exhaustive  list                                                         
and   it  was   not  a   recommendation    or  endorsement   from   the                                                         
administration.   He  also   noted  that  it  would   be  important  to                                                         
understand   what would  influence   the  decision-making   of the  one                                                         
major producer in Cook Inlet.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     Cook Inlet Energy Supply Incentives: Potential Options                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
          Tax changes                                                                                                           
             Tax or royalty holiday for new gas production                                                                      
              or all gas production                                                                                             
             Changes to ring fencing of lease expenditure                                                                       
              deductions                                                                                                        
             Lower tax ceilings for gas                                                                                         
             Per-mcf tax credit                                                                                                 
             Reinstitute some prior tax credits                                                                                 
           Funding  or loan  guarantees  for  developing  current                                                               
           gas discoveries                                                                                                      
           Incentives  or  funding  for gas  pipeline  from  North                                                              
           Slope to Interior and South Central Alaska (AKLNG                                                                    
           or ASAP)                                                                                                             
           Incentives,    funding,   or   loan   guarantees    for                                                              
           renewable energy projects                                                                                            
             Could reduce demand for gas                                                                                        
             Utility-scale or residential/commercial                                                                            
           Incentives,   funding  or   loan  guarantees   for  gas                                                              
           imports (i.e. Marathon LNG)                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  DUNBAR  remarked  that one  challenge  in Cook  Inlet  is that                                                         
the  market  is too  small  to justify   the investment.   He asked  if                                                         
DOR   had   considered   that   increasing    gas  consumption    might                                                         
stimulate  investment,   and  that  this could  be  done  by  reopening                                                         
exports and/or the Donlin Mine.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR.  STICKEL  offered  his  perspective   that  it was  a  chicken  and                                                         
egg  issue;  it  may  be  challenging   to  commit   to  an  additional                                                         
major  source   of  supply,  whatever   the  source,  without   knowing                                                         
that  the  demand  would   be  there.  Similarly,   it's  difficult  to                                                         
commit  to the  demand  side  without  knowing  that the  supply  would                                                         
be available.   He said  there could  potentially  be  a state  role in                                                         
helping bring the market together.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
4:33:53 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR   GIESSEL  observed   that  the  notion  of  loan   guarantees                                                         
makes  her   think  about   companies  like   Blue  Crest.   They  know                                                         
there's  an  offshore  gas  supply  but they  don't  have  the  ability                                                         
financially to bring it into production.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
4:34:12 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP  commented   that it's  all  a  policy  call, but  the                                                         
legislature  has  to look  at the  goal for  Cook Inlet  and  weigh the                                                         
cost and benefit of any proposal.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  observed  that the  goal is  to find  the sweet  spot                                                         
between  the  revenue  and  production  curves,  and  the  devil  is in                                                         
the details.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL   commented  that  it  was  a  difficult  process  to                                                         
repeal  the  cash  credits   because  some  people   were  counting  on                                                         
them and went bankrupt.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
She  thanked  Mr. Stickel  for  the  presentation  and  the additional                                                          
documents he provided.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
4:36:34 PM                                                                                                                    
There  being  no  further  business   to come  before   the  committee,                                                         
Co-Chair    Giessel   adjourned    the   Senate   Resources    Standing                                                         
Committee meeting at 4:36 p.m.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
Cook Inlet Update SRES 03.31.23.pdf SRES 3/31/2023 3:30:00 PM
DOR Response to SRES 03.30.23.pdf SRES 3/31/2023 3:30:00 PM
Willow Project Fiscal Analysis 2023.03.23 revision.pdf SRES 3/31/2023 3:30:00 PM
DOR Response to SRES Cook Inlet Update 03.31.23.pdf SRES 3/31/2023 3:30:00 PM
Attachment 1 - CI Oil Monthly Weighted Average Royalty.pdf SRES 3/31/2023 3:30:00 PM
Attachment 2 - CI Gas Monthly Weighted Average Royalty.pdf SRES 3/31/2023 3:30:00 PM